All that Snow and Ice too, with Global Warming

Yes, a warming climate can mean more snow.  A better term would of just been climate change, however that cat was already let out of the bag.   After spending three years at a U.S. Navy Meteorological and Oceanographic Command, I learned all about weather, climate and oceanography.  All three are different entities, while all three are intertwined.  A paradox you might ask, not really.

Weather is what is happening right now.  Climate is the pattern of weather over time.  The oceans are influenced over time by the weather which in turn influences the weather, which has a direct effect on the climate.   Yes, weather and the oceans have feedback mechanisms to each other and climate is the results of it over time. 

The other day I heard a prominent global warming skeptic make the comment that the Arctic ice has been growing at an astounding rate.  The reply from a prominent Climate scientist who actually works in the polar regions on climatology was direct and succinct.  Yes its growing because it is still winter at the northern pole region.  It is also too thin to last more than a few days before it melts.  I did have clean up his response a little bit.  If you want to talk about Arctic ice, lets talk in the third or fourth week of August, if there is any left.

There is this NPR article [1] that explains pretty good why it snows more because of Global warming.

(... Most don't see a contradiction between a warming world and lots of snow. That includes Kevin Trenberth, a prominent climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado.

"The fact that the oceans are warmer now than they were, say, 30 years ago means there's about on average 4 percent more water vapor lurking around over the oceans than there was, say, in the 1970s," he says.

Warmer water means more water vapor rises up into the air, and what goes up must come down.

"So one of the consequences of a warming ocean near a coastline like the East Coast and Washington, D.C., for instance, is that you can get dumped on with more snow partly as a consequence of global warming," he says.

And Trenberth notes that you don't need very cold temperatures to get big snow. In fact, when the mercury drops too low, it may be too cold to snow.

There's something else fiddling with the weather this year — a strong El Nino. That's the weather pattern that, every few years, raises itself up out of the western Pacific Ocean and blows east to the Americas. It brings heavy rains and storms to California and the south and southeast. It also pushes high-altitude jet streams farther south, which bring colder air with them.

Trenberth also says El Nino can "lock in" weather patterns like a meteorological highway, so that storms keep coming down the same track. ...)

A article here from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (2) gives a good explanation to what is going on:

(... Early in March, Arctic sea ice appeared to reach a maximum extent. However, after a short decline, the ice continued to grow. By the end of March, total extent approached 1979 to 2000 average levels for this time of year. The late-season growth was driven mainly by cold weather and winds from the north over the Bering and Barents Seas. Meanwhile, temperatures over the central Arctic Ocean remained above normal and the winter ice cover remained young and thin compared to earlier years. ...)

and

(... Ice age and thickness

The late date of the maximum extent, though of special interest this year, is unlikely to have an impact on summer ice extent. The ice that formed late in the season is thin, and will melt quickly when temperatures rise.

Scientists often use ice age data as a way to infer ice thickness—one of the most important factors influencing end-of-summer ice extent. Although the Arctic has much less thick, multiyear ice than it did during the 1980s and 1990s, this winter has seen some replenishment: the Arctic lost less ice the past two summers compared to 2007, and the strong negative Arctic Oscillation this winter prevented as much ice from moving out of the Arctic. The larger amount of multiyear ice could help more ice to survive the summer melt season. However, this replenishment consists primarily of younger, two- to three-year-old multiyear ice; the oldest, and thickest multiyear ice has continued to decline. Although thickness plays an important role in ice melt, summer ice conditions will also depend strongly on weather patterns through the melt season. ...)

So all this is was, a late season cold snap, like I said talk to me next August.  Besides this Climate Change is a whole lot like dancing.  Two or three steps forward and a step back, two or three forward and one back.

The National Academy of Sciences has produced a guide called, "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change."[3].  It does a good job of explaining what is going on and has a lot of pictures for those who do not seem to understand words very well. 

The American Geophysical Union {4] still stands by there Position Statement on "Human Impacts on Climate" [5] . 

(...  The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system—including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons—are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century. ...)

With all the thousands upon thousands of scientist who say Global Warming is real, the real discussion with them now is how bad and when and what collateral damage will result because of it.  One big issue that is already starting to show signs is the battle for water.  Here is a article, though from 2003 illustrates what is coming, "The Battle for Water" [6] . 

A couple of Wikis that has some good info on the overall scientific consensus is " Scientific Opinion on Climate Change" [7] and " Climate Change Consensus" [8].

The last issue I will talk about here that everyone should be concerned about the acidification of the oceans.  The International Academy Panel issued this Statement: [9]

(... Oceans play a critical role in the global carbon cycle by absorbing about a quarter of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere
from human activities;
• The rapid increase in CO2 emissions since the industrial revolution has increased the acidity of the world’s oceans with
potentially profound consequences for marine plants and animals especially those that require calcium carbonate to grow
and survive, and other species that rely on these for food;
• At current emission rates models suggest that all coral reefs and polar ecosystems will be severely affected by 2050 or
potentially even earlier;
• Marine food supplies are likely to be reduced with significant implications for food production and security in regions
dependent on fish protein, and human health and wellbeing;
• Ocean acidification is irreversible on timescales of at least tens of thousands of years;
• Even with stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppm, ocean acidification will have profound impacts on many marine
systems. Large and rapid reductions of global CO2 emissions are needed globally by at least 50% by 2050.

Over the past 200 years, the oceans have absorbed approximately a quarter of the CO2 produced from human activities.
This CO2 would otherwise have accumulated in the atmosphere leading to greater climate change. However, the absorption
of this CO2 has affected ocean chemistry and has caused the oceans (which are on average slightly alkaline) to become
more acidic. The average pH of oceanic surface waters has been lowered by 0.1 units since the pre-industrial period. This
represents a 30% increase in hydrogen ion activity. Hydrogen ions attack carbonate ions which are the building blocks
needed by many marine organisms, such as corals and shellfish, to produce their skeletons, shells and other hard structures.
This loss of carbonate ions produce lower saturation levels for the carbonate minerals, aragonite and calcite, which are
used in many shells and skeletons. Carbonate ion concentrations are now lower than at any other time during the last
800 000 years.

Global atmospheric CO2 concentrations are now at 387 ppm. If current trends in CO2 emissions continue, model projections
suggest that by mid-century CO2 concentrations will be more than double pre-industrial levels and the oceans will be more
acidic than they have been for tens of millions of years. The current rate of change is much more rapid than during any
event over the last 65 million years. These changes in ocean chemistry are irreversible for many thousands of years, and the
biological consequences could last much longer.  ...)

Bottom line is if the oceans die, we will too.  A great legacy for us to pass on isn't it. But as the old sayings go, "you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink".

References:

  1.   http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=123671588
  2.   http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
  3.   http://dels.nas.edu/dels/rpt_briefs/climate_change_2008_final.pdf
  4.   http://www.agu.org/
  5.   http://www.agu.org/sci_pol/positions/climate_change2008.shtml
  6.   http://www.purewatergazette.net/battleforwater.htm
  7.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change
  8.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_consensus
  9.  http://www.interacademies.net/?id=9075

Iratus-aves-hominis